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Does the product of random matrices satisfy a sharp cutoff phenomenon analogous to the coupon collector problem, and if so, what is the precise window of convergence to the limiting distribution?

Related: Furstenberg-Kesten theorem on Lyapunov exponents, Aldous-Diaconis cutoff conjecture for Markov chains, Le Page central limit theorem for random matrix products

The Berry-Esseen bounds for products of random matrices describe how quickly the distribution of a long matrix product converges to a Gaussian-type limit, but they do not resolve whether there is a sharp threshold, analogous to the cutoff phenomenon in Markov chains, at which convergence transitions abruptly from slow to essentially complete. The coupon collector work shows that certain combinatorial mixing processes exhibit a precise cutoff window, a narrow band of time around which the total variation distance drops sharply from near one to near zero. The open question is whether products of random matrices under minimal moment conditions exhibit a similar sharp cutoff profile, and whether the width of that window can be identified explicitly in terms of the Lyapunov exponent and the moment parameter delta.

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